For the Nationals the by-election for Lyne will be a significant test. Perhaps better put; significant tests. It will test their capacity to generate a supporter base, their ability to continue to attract voters if a good Liberal candidate is put forward, meeting the cost of the by-election campaign and their continued relevance in a change federal political landscape.
Undoubtedly if the ALP announces that it won’t be contesting Lyne then the Nationals may be able to sigh in relief for a moment or two. However, should the Liberals stand a candidate then the Nationals could be in some trouble. For unlike Gippsland, the Nationals will struggle painting the Liberals, and the Greens as bastards since the electorate relies on agriculture as its primary industry and source of employment.
The Nationals will be caught between a rock and hard place on how they run their by-election campaign for Lyne. Sure they’ll make some mileage out the ALP not contesting (if that’s what they do) but this will be limited with no candidate for hostilities to be directed at and no votes to be won. They will be able to target the Greens as wanting to destroy the agriculture industry, which is plainly untrue. But how would they tackle the Liberals?
But do the Liberals even factor into the Lyne by-election? I think the Nationals will be tested on illustrating their relevance to their supposed voter base in this by-election. They are very thin on the ground when it comes to policies, seemingly deferring to the Liberals without necessarily saying so in so many words.
It wouldn’t take much to bring the Nationals’ behaviour into question over issues like the Wheat Board Scandal, a festering wound that won’t go away. And now they seem to be out of ideas about how to best assist their natural support base, farmers. Since they’ve supported the buy-out of farmers by the federal government and the sale of land to developers, they’ve been destroying their own voter base.
I expect the pre-selection to be a bland affair with some usual Nationals suspect (whoever they are). And the election campaign itself to be the usual safe affair from the Nationals with a smattering of attack ads, probably against the Greens.
But this by-election will be interesting to watch from the perspective of the lines in the sand in Lyne for the Nationals.
Filed under: Campaigns, Rants & Raves, elections | Tagged: ALP, Australian Democrats, Australian Greens, by-election, by-elections, electorate, federal government, Greens, Liberals, Lyne, Mark Vaile, Nationals, NSW, political parties, politics, voters
