Come August 26 the new Senate will sit for the first time. And judging by the amount of media commotion over the winter recess period the new Senate is going to be very busy very early on. But what of the new landscape in the Senate, the Australian Greens being elevated to the status of parliamentary party, Family First being even more powerful and the entrance of a popular South Australian independent, Nick Xenophon.

There has already been a lot of print devoted to the ALP’s need to negotiate its legislative agenda with the Australian Greens, Family First and populist politician Steve Fielding and independent Nick Xenophon. But the real question is how close the ALP will get to the Coalition.

In the states and territories the ALP and the Liberal oppositions regularly collude to pass legislation through the Houses (well except in Queensland where the ALP can do whatever it likes legislatively the a clear majority its only House). So can we expect the ALP and Coalition to get together on the key legislative agenda for this sitting period?

It’s highly unlikely that they will while the Liberals attempt to re-assert themselves while struggling with an inept leader, deputy leader and sharks circling in Opposition. Although with the flip-flopping that’s been going on it could be possible that the Liberals will go along with the ALP’s emissions trading scheme – I’m sure they can come to some sort of agreement as they do in the states and territories.  And this would of course mean the ALP can avoid negotiating with the Greens or Xenophon.  Fielding would’ve gone along with it so that he could claim some kudos if the price of petrol dropped half a cent.

Of course the Greens would have been difficult to negotiate with and so they should be.  Like the other political parties they too committed to particular positions on issues like climate change; and they’ve been nothing but consistent on their position over tackling the issue.  And they’ve been very clear about their position on Rudd’s ETS.  But this entanglement will be avoided (the current blustering and media frenzy being for show) for the sake of being seen as taking action on climate change instead of taking action on climate change.

Time will tell if the Liberals will vote with the Government on its ETS (Turnbull has certainly made it sound like that’s a strong possibility).