This post is part of a series leading up to my live blog “The By-election Double-Header” or “BeDH” for short; and to differentiate them from my other rants n raves.
There seems to be this perpetuated political urban myth about the seat of Higgins; “it’s a true-blue blood Liberal Party seat”. The arbitrary geographical area known as “Higgins” has finally been reliquinished by former Treasurer (and thorn in Turnbull’s back) Peter Costello. But when you look at the numbers the seat is not really that safe, especially in a by-election. (Some general info at Wikipedia’s Higgins by-election 2009 wiki)
Sure you might have a laugh at that suggestion. You could even still be laughing right now.
Looking at the numbers, Costello won the seat in the 2007 federal election (an easy win: 57 -43). It could normally be said that a cool 7 point margin is a safe seat however, this is a by-election. And like all by-elections this one will also be peculiar to local issues and tensions. It could also be said that Costello’s personal voter base would be less inclined to vote for the “replacement” regardless of whether Costello “annointed” her or not. His personal voter base could be as much as 2% thereby dwindling the margin to 5 points. And given that it’s a by-election there will be fewer candidates to provide preferences to the Liberal Party; on top of the ALP refusing to participate in the democratic process by not fielding a candidate. A strong
The Australian Greens polled 10.75% in the last election. If this vote holds up it could provide a close-ish race. There is the likelihood of a significant proportion of ALP voters voting Greens and the attraction Clive Hamilton provides for small “l” Liberal Party voters, which could put the Greens within very close range of winning the seat. It will of course depend on how many candidates nominate (the ones announced by the AEC) and how many of those are stooges for the Liberal Party, outright independent (eg Stephen Mayne of Crikey! fame) or outright out-of-their-minds (eg One Nation). One Nation has so far said they would stand a candidate but haven’t announced one yet. (I wonder if that is like the recent case of One Nation not announcing a candidate so that the media couldn’t have too much time ‘destroying them’ in the press.) So far Family First have not made any announcements about standing a candidate.
There is some legitimacy to the Greens potential of winning the seat of Higgins, if not until the next federal election, which is expect sometime in 2010; possibly 12 months tops.
Come polling day the Greens have a good chances of denting the Liberals campaign funds at worst to winning the seat at best – in my humble opinion.
What some others in the Australian blogosphere are saying:
- The Tally Room – Higgins by-election guide posted Higgins by-election
- ABC’s Antony Green – Higgins by-election
- The Poll Bludger – Higgins by-election
As an aside it will be interesting to see how much work is done to promote awareness of the by-election. I’ll be looking for the final outcome of informal votes and the number of votes versus the number of registered voters as places of interest should a clear outcome be achieved.
Get your reminder for “The By-election Double-Header” live blog Dec 5 from 7pm
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Alex’s Choice News- Pacific : Islander work scheme bears no fruit November 22, 2009Source: Sunday Age
- Australia : Sick go to work for fear of losing job November 22, 2009Source: Sun-Herald
- Australia : Push for pay reforms for women: report November 22, 2009Source: AAP
- Pacific : Islander work scheme bears no fruit November 22, 2009
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October 30, 2009 at 8:21 am
Clive Hamilton directing attention towards global warming, just prior to Copenhagen, could assist Greens to getting within a whisker of the 51% required
Looking forward to Election Day.
October 28, 2009 at 11:12 am
You might wanna link to my guide to the by-election instead: http://www.tallyroom.com.au/higgins2009
October 28, 2009 at 1:03 pm
Thanks for that update Ben.
October 28, 2009 at 10:07 am
The margin might not look like that much, and indeed if Higgins followed general swings, the polling currently in Victoria would have showed it as winnable for the ALP, but Higgins *does not* follow general swings. In fact, Higgins doesn’t really swing at all – the downward trend in the Liberal vote over time has been due to changing demographics, other than that, it doesn’t fluctuate. That’s *why* the general wisdom is that the seat is blue-ribbon Liberal, and why the general wisdom is correct.
October 28, 2009 at 8:27 pm
Sure in general Higgins might be safe but a there’s nothing general about a by-election. Strange things can happen during the campaign period with equally interesting outcomes. I’d imagine the Liberals would retain the seat but with a good scare coming out of it.
Of course the general wisdom would apply in the ensuing general election for Higgins, when all players are back in the game.
October 30, 2009 at 5:55 pm
Hey Alex,
Great idea for a “double header.”
How much do think these by elections will be seen as a referendum on Turnbull’s leadership (and indeed the government’s handling of recent issues) and how much will depend on local issues?
October 31, 2009 at 4:51 pm
Thanks Rich. Funny you should ask that particular question as it will be one of a few that I ponder in the next Higgins post.
So stay tuned for that one.