Many have been sifting through the tea leaves after the South Australian and Tasmanian state elections. There has also been much hand-wringing from the incumbent governments, although in South Australia it look more certain that Rann will have some breathing space. In Tasmania, no-one is claiming victory except Will Hodgman banging on about forming minority government. One has to wonder how they teach mathematics when Hodgman seems incapable of understanding he needs 13 seats to form a minority government, not the widely tipped 10 seats they’ll pick up.
In South Australia, Rann has been returned with the slightest buffer. The rumour mill is burning hot with how the next few months play out, with Rann apparently eager to leave on a high note. With a new and fresh leader, the ALP could improve their opportunities for re-election. There would be time, if Rann retires early into the new term, for a new leader to make the most of clear run and work to underline the difference between the “old” and the “new”. The South Australian upper house will be an interesting forum.
There have also been many commentators and pundits suggesting the fate of the Tasmanian Greens rests in how they play out the next couple of weeks (or months). There are no doubts that there will be some tense moments, not just for the Greens but for the Labor and Liberal parties. They will also start to come under heavier criticism for maintaining unworkable positions and jeopardising stable governments. For the Liberals they would be seeking to form a difficult relationship fraught with danger. It could result in even further retraction of donations from their big business friends. For the Labor party it could result in another “accord” that could be difficult to maintain with tensions over distribution of taxes and environmental issues.
However, there’s a third way that could be an interesting outcome. That being the loose “accord” between the Labor and Liberal parties. With such insistence by Hodgman and Bartlett to not enter into agreement with the Greens or to offer Greens ministerial positions, is it really too far fetched for a Liberal-Labor “accord”? Could Hodgman and Bartlett start risking being seen as too ideologically-driven to govern the state?
I do believe that while this is a crucial moment for the Tasmanian Greens it is not a “do or die” moment. It will be crucial though for the Greens in terms of what they have learned from earlier “coalition” efforts with the Liberals and Labor Party.
As for the federal election?
The tea leaves tell me, as other commentators have suggested, that there is a clear distinction between state and federal elections in the minds of voters. Whether in Tasmania or South Australia, or Victoria or Queensland or anywhere in Australia. Voters are clear about the federal issues and understand some of the links between state and federal governments. So there can be nothing gained by pouring over the results to help predict the federal election.
The real stories for the federal election are how the redistributions will play out?; How will the n00bs from 2007 fair?; And how will the Senate shape up?
Note: Since this piece has been written Abbott competed in his first (and probably only) iron man contest, to now claim to be Australia’s iron man in politics. These kinds of antics really don’t seem to make sense. Congratulations to him for completing such a gruelling endurance competition like the iron man competition. However, to contemplate participating in this competition suggests already flawed decision making.
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Alex’s Choice News
A different angle on the Tas and SA elections
March 30, 2010 in Elections, Rants & Raves
Tags: accountability, Australia, ballot box, commentary, David Bartlett, democracy, government, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, Mike Rann, personal opinion, politics, South Australia, state government, Tasmania, Tasmanian Greens, voters, voting
Many have been sifting through the tea leaves after the South Australian and Tasmanian state elections. There has also been much hand-wringing from the incumbent governments, although in South Australia it look more certain that Rann will have some breathing space. In Tasmania, no-one is claiming victory except Will Hodgman banging on about forming minority government. One has to wonder how they teach mathematics when Hodgman seems incapable of understanding he needs 13 seats to form a minority government, not the widely tipped 10 seats they’ll pick up.
In South Australia, Rann has been returned with the slightest buffer. The rumour mill is burning hot with how the next few months play out, with Rann apparently eager to leave on a high note. With a new and fresh leader, the ALP could improve their opportunities for re-election. There would be time, if Rann retires early into the new term, for a new leader to make the most of clear run and work to underline the difference between the “old” and the “new”. The South Australian upper house will be an interesting forum.
There have also been many commentators and pundits suggesting the fate of the Tasmanian Greens rests in how they play out the next couple of weeks (or months). There are no doubts that there will be some tense moments, not just for the Greens but for the Labor and Liberal parties. They will also start to come under heavier criticism for maintaining unworkable positions and jeopardising stable governments. For the Liberals they would be seeking to form a difficult relationship fraught with danger. It could result in even further retraction of donations from their big business friends. For the Labor party it could result in another “accord” that could be difficult to maintain with tensions over distribution of taxes and environmental issues.
However, there’s a third way that could be an interesting outcome. That being the loose “accord” between the Labor and Liberal parties. With such insistence by Hodgman and Bartlett to not enter into agreement with the Greens or to offer Greens ministerial positions, is it really too far fetched for a Liberal-Labor “accord”? Could Hodgman and Bartlett start risking being seen as too ideologically-driven to govern the state?
I do believe that while this is a crucial moment for the Tasmanian Greens it is not a “do or die” moment. It will be crucial though for the Greens in terms of what they have learned from earlier “coalition” efforts with the Liberals and Labor Party.
As for the federal election?
The tea leaves tell me, as other commentators have suggested, that there is a clear distinction between state and federal elections in the minds of voters. Whether in Tasmania or South Australia, or Victoria or Queensland or anywhere in Australia. Voters are clear about the federal issues and understand some of the links between state and federal governments. So there can be nothing gained by pouring over the results to help predict the federal election.
The real stories for the federal election are how the redistributions will play out?; How will the n00bs from 2007 fair?; And how will the Senate shape up?
Note: Since this piece has been written Abbott competed in his first (and probably only) iron man contest, to now claim to be Australia’s iron man in politics. These kinds of antics really don’t seem to make sense. Congratulations to him for completing such a gruelling endurance competition like the iron man competition. However, to contemplate participating in this competition suggests already flawed decision making.
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