Picking through the tea leaves of the Broadmeadows by-election

February 20, 2011 in Campaigns, Elections, Rants & Raves
Tags: accountability, ALP, Australian Greens, Australian Sex Party, ballot box, Broadmeadows, by-election, Celal Sahin, commentary, democracy, DLP, Greens, independents, information, live blog, Melbourne, personal opinion, Victoria

Broadmeadows by-election 2011

The Broadmeadows by-election pretty much played out the way most pundits had predicted, including myself that the Labor Party would comfortably retain the seat.  Some were saying the Greens would prove to be the major alternative, though I wanted to believe it, I had predicted no major change in vote.

Already the pundits are declaring the Greens performed poorly.  It definitely is not the greatest result, but the primary vote didn’t collapse. The candidate was committed and did what he could do.  Some are also questioning the decision to run an open ticket as being the smartest thing to do in the electorate; and whether it contributed to the loss of votes.

The results did through up some interesting outcomes though; and very much unexpected.  There was no surprise in a further decline in the Labor vote.

There was a high informal vote, and as predicted a low voter turnout.

The most amazing result in the election was the vote for Celal Sahin. At the general state election, the Liberals’ primary vote was 25%. With no Liberal candidate at this election, the supposed independent Sahin, looks to have picked up most of the Liberal vote.  It is pretty clear that some Liberal voters shopped around for other independents including the Democratic Labor Party.

The Sex Party looks to have been a beneficiary, as was David Graeme Marr, of a donkey vote. Marr in particular benefited most being at the top of the ballot paper. Though there was an additional boost in parts of the electorate he’s involved in.  Sahin on the other-hand enjoyed widespread support across the electorate.

However, it’s clear that the Labor Party had lost more support at this election, and that voters are still unhappy with Labor.  Though there are probably some additional reasons including voters going to the polls three times in less than 6 months (Brumby failing to fulfil his promise to see out the term) and the ALP’s candidate living outside the area (despite having grown up in Broadmeadows).

On the two-party-preferred measure the seat remains a strong hold of the ALP. It was queried last night whether the result had made the electorate marginal. Sadly the seat is no more marginal now than it was after the state’s general election in November last year.

Although after suffering another significant lose of voter support, the pressure will be on McGuire to work hard and perform if he’s going to win back voters.

Last night I ran a live blog for the Broadmeadows by-election.  It provides an analysis and commentary on the results; including notes on the day and voters’ sentiments.

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